Mortality Caused by Tropical Cyclones in the United States
Young, R.; Hsiang, S. Nature (2024).
Selected coverage: AP, NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New Yorker, CNN, The Guardian, NPR, Scientific American, USA Today, The Verge, National Geographic, CBS News, Axios, PBS
Bridging Community Resilience and Local Planning for Climate Justice
Best, K.; He, Q.; Flores, A. B.; Gu, D.; Howell, J.; Johnson, D. R.; Liao, Y.; Reilly, A. C.; Rumbach, A.; Sheldon, T.; Siders, A. R.; Wong-Parodi, G.; Young, R.; Niemeier, D. Climate Risk Management (2026).
Why Is Electricity Use No Longer Growing?
Nadel, S.; Young, R.M. Issue. Public Utilities Fortnightly (2014).
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability: A Review of Different Open-Source Approaches.
Wilson, K.M., Baldwin, J.W., Young, R.M. In: Collins, J.M., Done, J.M. (eds) Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate. Hurricane Risk, vol 2. Springer, Cham. (2022).
Inferring Fine-Grained Migration Patterns Across the United States.
Agostini, G., Young, R., Fitzpatrick, M., Garg, N., & Pierson, E. (Accepted Nature Communications). https://migrate.tech.cornell.edu/.
Abstract: Fine-grained migration data illuminate important demographic, environmental, and health phenomena. However, migration datasets within the United States remain lacking: publicly available census data are neither spatially nor temporally granular, and proprietary data have higher resolution but demographic and other biases. To address these limitations, we develop a scalable iterative-proportional-fitting based method which reconciles high-resolution but biased proprietary data with low-resolution but more reliable Census data. We apply this method to produce MIGRATE, a dataset of annual migration matrices from 2010 - 2019 which captures flows between 47.4 billion pairs of Census Block Groups — about four thousand times more granular than publicly available data. These estimates are highly correlated with external ground-truth datasets, and improve accuracy and reduce bias relative to raw proprietary data. We publicly release MIGRATE estimates and provide a case study illustrating how they reveal granular patterns of migration in response to California wildfires.
Does Government-Assisted Relocation Help Households
Young, R.M. (in prep). Draft presented at APPAM Fall 2022 Conference. Washington D.C., Camp Resource XXX Confererence 2024. Asheville NC, and Stanford University 2024 Preparing for a Changing Climate Conference. Stanford, CA.
Abstract: Climate change is intensifying floods and storms, leading governments to consider relocating households away from high-risk areas. Yet there is little evidence on whether such programs reduce risk or improve household well-being. I evaluate the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s property acquisition (“buyout”) program using nationwide longitudinal records that track households before and after approval. By comparing participants with similar neighbors in the same flood zones, I identify the program’s effects on relocation, flood exposure, and financial outcomes. Households that participate move sooner, relocate to safer areas, and experience modest short-term reductions in debt and improvements in neighborhood socioeconomic conditions. However, these benefits are concentrated among participants from wealthier and predominantly white neighborhoods, who relocate more quickly and achieve larger reductions in risk. A benefit–cost analysis indicates that buyouts are roughly cost-neutral to taxpayers, with potential for net savings under faster implementation and higher participation. These results show that government-assisted relocation can be an effective adaptation tool, but its social and economic benefits remain unevenly distributed.
Limited Migration from Tropical Cyclones in the United States.
Young, R.M., Kolodner, K.L., & Oppenheimer, M. (in prep). Presented at 2023 Managed Retreat Conference, Habitability and Mobility in an Era of Climate Change, Columbia University, New York, New York, AERE 2025 Summer Conference, Santa Ana Pueblo, NM, and SWEEEP at Georgia Tech, Atlanta GA.
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most damaging weather events in the United States, yet their role in shaping migration remains uncertain. Using multiple large-scale datasets, we assess whether TCs drive population movement across the country. We leverage three distinct datasets: (i) county-to-county migration flows from the Internal Revenue Service (1990–2020); (ii) a national panel of more than 260 million adult address records (2000–2020); and (iii) building-level damage estimates derived from aerial imagery for two major hurricanes. Across these scales, we find that out-migration increases only after the most extreme TC exposures—those in the top 1 percent of wind speeds—and is negative or negligible at lower intensities. Even among households whose homes were severely damaged, permanent relocation remains uncommon. Overall, TCs account for roughly 0.14 percent of total residential moves nationally, with significant negative effects on migration in areas outside the the Gulf Coast. These results indicate that disaster-related migration in the United States is rare and highly nonlinear, suggesting that most households rebuild rather than relocate after storms. Understanding why mobility remains limited—whether due to financial, institutional, or social factors—is critical for designing recovery and adaptation policies that align with observed behavioral responses.
Impact of Hurricanes on U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Assisted Households
Young, R.M., Din A. 2024. Accepted for presentation at APPAM Fall 2024 Conference. (in prep).
Abstract: Evidence continues to mount of the unequal effects of climate change and climate-driven natural hazards across different racial and income groups. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) provides rental assistance for 4.6 million low-income households across the US. HUD program participants are poorer and, therefore, vulnerable to damage from natural disasters. However, little is known about the impact of disasters on HUD programs and their program participants. There is some evidence that HUD assistance participation is negatively impacted by natural disasters and that households subsidized by federal renter assistance are potentially more vulnerable to disasters that non-subsidized housing, but the research is limited. This project fills the current knowledge gap by uncovering: 1) the impact of natural disasters on entries and exits from HUD assistance; and 2) the change in neighborhood quality, including future hazard risk, for HUD assisted individuals that are impacted by Hurricane Harvey. We combine rich set of administrative data for all HUD households that participate in Public Housing or the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) programs in Harvey impacted areas the time of the hurricane with a consumer reference database of household’s addresses over time and property-level damage ratings generated through aerial imagery and machine learning predicted. Using a propensity score matching procedure we estimate the causal effect of the hurricane on HUD participants on their likelihood of participating in HUD rental assistance programs, changes in neighborhood natural hazard risk, and neighborhood poverty. We also estimate the differential effects by property damage-level for each household. Individuals in homes destroyed by Hurricane Harvey are forced to relocate at higher rates than their counterparts in low damage properties, making them more vulnerable to losing their HUD assistance vouchers. Findings from this paper have important implications for HUD program priorities and for government assistance in the aftermath of major natural disasters.
Young, Rachel, Chetana Kallakuri, Sarah Hayes. 2015. 2015 International Scorecard Self-Scoring Tool. Washington D.C.: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.
Young, Rachel and Sara Hayes. 2015. The State and Utility Pollution Reduction (SUPR) Calculator. Research Report E1501. Washington D.C.: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.
Young, Rachel, Sara Hayes, Meegan Kelly, Shruti Vaidyanathan, Sameer Kwatra, Rachel Cluett, and Garrett Herndon. 2014. 2014 International Energy Efficiency Scorecard. Research Report E1402. Washington D.C.: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.
Young, Rachel, Sara Hayes, Steven Nadel, Garrett Herndon, and Jim Barrett. 2013. Economic Impacts of the Energy Efficiency Provisions in the Energy Savings & Industrial Competitiveness Act of 2013 and Select Amendments. White Paper. Washington D.C.: American Council for and Energy-Efficient Economy.
Young, Rachel and Eric Mackres. 2013. Tackling the Nexus: Exemplary Programs that Save Both Energy and Water. Research Report E131. Washington D.C.: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.
Young, Rachel, R. Neal Elliott, Martin Kushler. 2012. Saving Money and Reducing Risk: How Energy Efficiency Enhances the Benefits of the Natural Gas Boom. White Paper. Washington D.C.: American Council for and Energy-Efficient Economy.
Hayes, S. and Young, R.M. 2012. Reducing the Cost of Environmental Regulations: Energy Efficiency as an Air Quality Compliance Mechanism. Volume XXIV Issue 4. The Georgetown International Environmental Law Review. Washington D.C.: Georgetown University.